“Russia has already moved to covert mobilisation and is preparing to announce open mobilisation in the near future,” said Kyrylo Budanov, the head of Ukraine’s military intelligence, in an interview this week with the Ukrainian news outlet New Times. Ukrainian officials in particular have warned that Putin is planning to announce a mass mobilisation, or even to declare war against Ukraine, calling up personnel and resources that were untapped under Russia’s so-called “special operation” that began on 24 February. Dramatic options include escalation through a formal declaration of war or general mobilisation – or de-escalating by proclaiming victory.Īlternatively, Putin could offer up a “sandwich”, as one analyst put it, that praises the Russian army’s “victory” while preparing the population for a grinding and painful conflict as status quo. And the coming weeks are going to be the telltale of where this is going.”įacing setbacks, officials have suggested that Vladimir Putin may use the May 9 holiday to repackage the war in Ukraine.

And given how effective the Ukrainians have been with our support, I just don’t think they’re going to be able to achieve their objectives within the coming weeks. “Militaries just don’t recover that quickly from such a devastating loss.

“With the current force that they have, the push that they’re attempting now is all that they have left,” said Jeffrey Edmonds, former director for Russia on the US national security council and senior analyst at the CNA thinktank.

Russia victory day parades are stupid